October 23, 2026 · PM edition

Wall Street eats 80% of the pie while you bet on the Brewers

The banks simulate 10,000 trades, the models simulate 10,000 games, and you simulate having an edge. Have a good weekend.

FF2K generated dispatch art for Wall Street eats 80% of the pie while you bet on the Brewers

Full recap

Happy Friday, thought criminals. Let it resonate. Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley have quietly vacuum-sealed 80% of equity trading revenue this year, pulling in 52 billion dollars between them off the AI stock boom. The secret sauce: margin lending to hedge funds chasing the same five tickers everyone else is chasing. It is not alpha, it is leverage on leverage, and the banks are the house. They always are. The premarket and after-hours movers read like a greatest-hits album nobody asked for: SpaceX, Super Micro Computer, Netflix, Dell. Half of these names will be down 30% by the time someone writes the cautionary longform piece about them. The other half will get acquired and rebranded into something worse. Midday madness brought us Hasbro, Northrop Grumman, Equifax, and General Motors moving in unison like a boomer portfolio having an identity crisis. Toy companies, defense contractors, credit bureaus, and car makers. A beautiful snapshot of the American economy telling on itself. On the sports desk, the 2026 World Series is here. Tampa Bay Rays versus Milwaukee Brewers, Game 1 tonight. A model simulated this 10,000 times to give you a pick. Wall Street also runs 10,000 simulations. Neither set of simulations prevented anyone from losing money, but at least the baseball one is honest about what it is. The Knicks and Celtics tip off tonight too, and CBS Sports apparently needed two separate preview articles to cover it, because one prediction was not enough narrative to monetize. New York versus Boston in October is always must-watch theater, even when both rosters look like a mid-season trade deadline fever dream. UMass versus UConn rounds out the Friday card in a college football matchup that is essentially two programs politely asking to exist. Respect the grind. Someone has to play on CBS Sports Network at 7pm on a Friday. The thread connecting all of it: the big institutions print money on the upswing, the models give you confidence on the bet, and everyone goes home thinking they had an edge. Have a good weekend. Let that resonate.

Highlights

  • Three banks captured 52 billion dollars in equity trading revenue this year by lending money to hedge funds so hedge funds could buy more of the same stocks the banks are bullish on. Circle of life.
  • Super Micro Computer moved in premarket, after hours, and presumably at lunch. At some point the stock is just a mood ring for AI anxiety.
  • The World Series matchup was simulated 10,000 times by a model, which is 9,999 more times than most people will think before placing the bet.
  • Two full Knicks-Celtics preview articles published by the same outlet on the same day. Content is a sport now, and everyone is losing.
  • Hasbro and Northrop Grumman moved on the same midday list. One makes toys, one makes things that end toys. Both are publicly traded. America is fine.

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