Full recap
Good morning. The commodity markets woke up violent today, with corn and wheat futures hitting three-year highs. The reasons behind each rally are apparently different, which is economist code for 'we have two separate crises and we are going to explain neither of them clearly until they are already priced in.' Meanwhile, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh apparently used his Jackson Hole podium time to remind everyone that inflation is still annoying him personally. The September rate decision is now a coin flip. A literal coin flip. The most powerful central bank on Earth is operating on the same probability model as your fantasy football draft strategy. Speak of the devil: fantasy football draft season is in full swing, and Jamey Eisenberg has dropped tier rankings for both tight ends and wide receivers. If you are spending more cognitive energy on your TE2 situation than on whether the Fed just broke the housing market again, honestly, respect. At least fantasy football has clear rules. The 9th Circuit just ruled that sports-related prediction market contracts are not swaps, directly contradicting the 3rd Circuit from April. Two federal courts. Opposite conclusions. Same country. The Supreme Court is now basically being gift-wrapped a case that will decide whether Americans can legally bet on whether corn prices will keep rising, using a contract that one court says is fine and another says is not. This is the part where business and sports fully collapse into each other: prediction markets, which are either the future of finance or illegal gambling depending on your zip code and which appeals court you happen to live near, are now a Supreme Court problem. Meanwhile the actual sports gamblers are just using Kalshi and Polymarket for Week 0 college football and running 10,000 simulations on Virginia vs NC State. The market found a way. Todd Golden just signed a six-year, 49.5 million dollar extension to coach Florida basketball. That is 7.5 million per year to manage 18-year-olds who will leave for the NBA after one season. For context, the Fed Chair earns roughly 226 thousand dollars a year to manage the entire US economy. The incentive structure here is either inspiring or deeply broken, and we report, you decide. Premarket movers include PayPal, Affirm, Gap, and Marvell Technology. The buy-now-pay-later crowd is in motion on a Friday, which is either a sign of economic optimism or a sign that people are financing their weekend groceries. Given the corn and wheat prices, probably both. Have a great weekend, thought criminals. Let that resonate.
Highlights
- Corn and wheat at three-year highs, Fed is a coin flip, and two federal courts disagree on prediction markets: normal Friday.
- The 9th and 3rd Circuits are in direct conflict on whether sports prediction contracts are swaps, meaning the Supreme Court gets to define American gambling finance while the rest of us just run 10,000 simulations and move on.
- Todd Golden will earn 7.5 million dollars a year to coach college basketball while the Fed Chair earns 226 thousand to manage the US economy. One of these jobs has better job security and it is not the one you think.
- Off-color take: buy-now-pay-later stocks are moving premarket on a Friday in August, which means someone out there is Affirm-ing a corn futures position and a fantasy football subscription simultaneously. Respect the hustle.
Original source links
- CNBC: Corn and wheat prices jump to highest prices in more than three years
- CNBC: U.S. appeals court rules against prediction markets, sets up likely fight at Supreme Court
- CNBC: September Fed decision is now a coin flip as rate hike odds increase post Warsh
- CBS Sports: Jamey Eisenberg's Fantasy Football Tight End Tiers 3.0: What rounds to draft and target your TEs in 2026
- CBS Sports: Week 0 college football predictions for Kalshi, Polymarket, Underdog: Virginia-NC State, UNLV-Memphis
- CBS Sports: Todd Golden signs contract extension: New deal for Florida coach worth $49.5 million for six years