Full recap
Good morning. The Fed is apparently dusting off its rate hike playbook again, because oil prices are ripping higher and somebody at the central bank saw a number they didn't like. Investors are now pricing in a September hike, which is the financial equivalent of your doctor telling you to eat better right after handing you a lollipop. The irony of fighting inflation with the same blunt instrument that broke the housing market is not lost on anyone with a pulse. Intel and AMD are both moving after hours, which means earnings season is doing its usual thing: rewarding some chip makers and confusing everyone else. Oracle and American Express are also in the premarket chaos parade. Nothing says 'healthy market' like a list of stocks moving 5% before most people have had coffee. On the geopolitical absurdity beat, the U.S. and several other nations signed an APEC statement endorsing open-source AI with 'strong security' at a summit in China. Let that marinate. We are co-signing open AI cooperation documents with the country we've been chip-blocking for three years. Diplomacy is just lobbying with better snacks. Over in football, the Rams are being crowned Super Bowl favorites before a single regular season snap is taken. Matthew Stafford, Myles Garrett, Puka Nacua, Davante Adams - it reads like a fantasy roster built by someone with unlimited FAAB. History, however, has a brutal track record of humbling overwhelming preseason favorites. The hype-to-ring conversion rate is not great. The Washington Nationals have a pitcher named Foster Griffin who went to Japan, figured himself out, came back with a 2.68 ERA, and is now a trade deadline gem. That is genuinely one of the better redemption arcs in baseball this year. The Nats have to decide whether to cash him in for prospects or bet on continuity. Classic small-market chess problem wrapped in a medium-market uniform. Duke-Michigan in Miami got canceled due to broadcast complications, and now Duke plays Texas Tech at Madison Square Garden on December 21. So instead of a warm weather neutral site, we get the World's Most Famous Arena in the dead of winter. College basketball scheduling is basically a hostage negotiation between TV networks and athletic departments, and the fans are the ransom. The throughline today: institutions love announcing cooperation they can't deliver, markets love pricing in pain before it arrives, and sports franchises love building hype structures that collapse under the weight of expectation. FF2K sees the pattern. You should too.
Highlights
- Fed rate hike odds are surging because oil got expensive again - the cure for inflation is apparently more financial pain, delivered quarterly
- The Rams are historic Super Bowl favorites, which historically means they are historic future disappointments - ask any 2019 Patriots fan how that preseason confidence aged
- The U.S. signed an open-source AI cooperation statement with China at APEC, which is either peak diplomacy or peak cognitive dissonance depending on how many export control briefings you've sat through
- Foster Griffin went to Japan, rebuilt his career, came back with a filthy ERA, and Washington might trade him anyway - because in baseball, building something good just means someone richer wants it
Original source links
- CNBC: Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Intel, Oracle, American Express & more
- CNBC: U.S., other nations back open-source AI with 'strong security' at China summit
- CNBC: Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Intel, AMD, Boston Beer, Deckers & more
- CBS Sports: Rams are unprecedented Super Bowl favorites, but history offers a stark warning
- CBS Sports: From Japan to potential trade deadline gem: Nationals' Foster Griffin is one of MLB's biggest success stories
- CBS Sports: Duke-Michigan game in Miami called off; Blue Devils will instead face Texas Tech at MSG on Dec. 21