Full recap
Good morning. The New York Fed's John Williams stepped up to the mic today to deliver five whole reasons why inflation has peaked. Five. He wrote them down and everything. Whether you believe him depends entirely on whether you still believe the same institution that called inflation 'transitory' back when gas cost more than therapy. But hey, rates are 'well positioned,' which is Fed-speak for 'we have no idea but we feel pretty good about it.' Warren Buffett, 95 years young and still laundering credibility for institutions, blessed Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair with a thumbs up and the verbal equivalent of a participation trophy. 'He'll do the best job he can.' That's the endorsement. That's it. Somewhere a Golden Retriever just got a more enthusiastic review from its vet. Star tech analyst Dan Ives left Wedbush to start his own merchant bank, Yorkville Ives and Co., combining investment banking, equity research, institutional trading, and principal investing. Translation: Dan Ives is now the entire financial system, just louder and with better hair. When your personal brand is bigger than your employer, you were already running a solo operation anyway. Premarket movers included BlackRock, PayPal, ASML, and Morgan Stanley. The usual suspects. The market is basically a recurring cast of characters at this point, showing up every earnings season like a sitcom you stopped enjoying but still watch out of habit. Someone somewhere just bought more BlackRock. Congratulations to them. Over in the American League, the MLB All-Star break has arrived and the power rankings read like a participation trophy ceremony. The Red Sox might be relevant. Might. CBS Sports called the AL 'painfully mediocre,' which is the most honest sports headline of the year and also an accurate description of most central bank press releases. England vs. Argentina in the 2026 World Cup semifinal is happening Wednesday and the experts are already on a 25-18 pick roll, which means one guy has been right slightly more than a coin flip and is now a prophet. The England-Argentina rivalry is the geopolitical beef that never dies, which makes sense because both nations have complicated relationships with inflation and disappointment. Dynasty fantasy football mock drafts are already circulating for 2026 with the hot take being: stockpile quarterbacks early. Quarterbacks in dynasty leagues are like Bitcoin in 2020, everyone knows supply is limited, but most people still wait too long and overpay someone else's leavings. The parallel is almost too clean. The QB situation rankings have the 49ers at the top and the Browns at the bottom, which tracks historically, cosmically, and karmically. Cleveland is to quarterback stability what the Fed is to price stability: hopeful, frequently wrong, and somehow still in business.
Highlights
- Williams says inflation peaked and rates are 'well positioned' - the same institution that invented 'transitory' now wants five more chances to be right
- Dan Ives going indie is the most honest move in finance this year: when your brand IS the bank, you might as well own the building
- The AL is 'painfully mediocre' at the All-Star break, which is basically the sports equivalent of a Fed press conference - lots of participants, no clear winner, and everyone's pretending it's exciting
Original source links
- CNBC: New York Fed President Williams says inflation has peaked, rates 'well positioned'
- CNBC: Buffett says Trump's pick of Kevin Warsh for Fed chair was 'good choice'
- CNBC: Star analyst Dan Ives forms Yorkville Ives merchant bank after leaving Wedbush
- CBS Sports: MLB Power Rankings: Can the Red Sox get hot enough to be relevant in the (painfully mediocre) American League?
- CBS Sports: England vs. Argentina odds, prediction, time: 2026 World Cup semifinal picks by expert on 25-18 roll
- CBS Sports: Dynasty Fantasy football superflex startup mock draft: Don't be afraid to stockpile quarterbacks early