July 13, 2026 · PM edition

Fed fingers on the trigger, banks printing, and the Open Championship is basically a metaphor for all of it

When the banks profit from the war and the Fed caused the inflation, calling it a 'sweet spot' is technically accurate.

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Full recap

Good morning. The Federal Reserve is once again doing its favorite thing: threatening to hike rates while talking out of both sides of its institutional mouth. Governor Waller says the Fed shouldn't 'fight the last war' on inflation, which is a charming way of admitting they lost the last war. Meanwhile, the odds of a July hike are climbing because oil prices spiked on Strait of Hormuz drama. Nothing like a geopolitical flashpoint to remind you that energy markets are just vibes with pipelines. Waller's broader point is actually worth taking seriously: inflation has spread beyond the obvious culprits like tariffs and energy. It's baked in now. The Fed spent years insisting inflation was transitory, then spent more years hiking like they invented the concept, and now they're staring at a monster they partially built and calling it 'complex.' Respect the hustle, Governor. Meanwhile, the big banks are absolutely bathing in it. JPMorgan, Goldman, and friends are about to report booming Q2 numbers, juiced by SpaceX IPO fees, Iran war volatility trading revenue, and a commercial lending rebound. War, hype, and debt. The holy trinity of Wall Street earnings season. The only thing missing is a meme stock. SpaceX is in the midday movers list too, alongside Nio, AppLovin, and SK Hynix. Nothing says 'healthy market' like a rocket company, a Chinese EV brand, an ad-tech firm, and a memory chip maker all moving big on the same afternoon. Diversification is alive and well, assuming your definition of diversification is 'everything correlated when it matters.' Over in golf, the 2026 Open Championship is setting up as the final major of the season, and the question is whether Scottie Scheffler can shake whatever has been haunting him lately or whether Rory McIlroy finally closes the deal on home soil. It has been a year of surprise major winners, which is either inspiring or a sign that the data models are broken. Probably both. Sam Burns is listed as a sleeper pick, which is the golf equivalent of a mid-cap value stock: analytically sound, emotionally unsatisfying, and exactly the kind of pick that wins you money and loses you friends. Borgata will happily take your $20 and hand you $100 in 'bonus bets,' which is just fiat theater with a golf backdrop. The connection between the Fed's rate anxiety and the Open Championship is tighter than it looks: both involve watching overpaid professionals manage risk under pressure while the rest of us just want a clean result. The Fed wants to avoid a policy mistake. Rory wants to avoid the back nine. Same energy, different stakes. One of them actually delivers sometimes.

Highlights

  • Fed rate hike odds rising because oil spiked on Strait of Hormuz news - geopolitics is just macro trolling at this point
  • Big banks set to report monster Q2 earnings powered by SpaceX IPO fees and Iran war volatility trading revenue - war is a balance sheet event
  • The 2026 Open Championship arrives with Scheffler struggling and Rory lurking, which is basically the golf version of a rate decision: everyone has a thesis, nobody really knows
  • Borgata is offering $100 in 'bonus bets' for a $20 deposit, which is the most honest description of fiat money creation you will read all week

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