Full recap
Good afternoon. The market wants you to feel good about stocks right now, and Wall Street is more than happy to help. The S&P 500 looks "cheap" at 21x forward earnings, which is a sentence that only makes sense if you trust the earnings forecasts, which are basically just vibes with spreadsheets attached. The trailing 28x tells the real story. Don't be fooled is right. Meanwhile Kevin Warsh is staffing up his Federal Reserve task forces with Marc Andreessen and Walmart's Doug McMillon, which is either a sign that the Fed is getting serious about modernization or a sign that it's auditioning for a TED Talk. Either way, the most important financial institution in the world now has a venture capitalist helping audit it. What could go wrong. On the mover board: Delta, Vodafone, Intel, Circle, SK Hynix, WD-40, and Meta all made notable swings pre and midday. WD-40 made the list, which means even the company that literally lubricates squeaky things is not immune to macro friction. Respect the range. Over in sports, the 2026 FIFA World Cup quarterfinals are heating up and the stakes are exactly as high as the drama. But Argentina is playing two games at once: one on the pitch and one with the FBI, who are reportedly investigating the Argentine Football Association for alleged money laundering in the US. Nothing says tournament host nation energy like a federal probe. Conor McGregor returns Saturday night at UFC 329 against Max Holloway in Las Vegas. The experts are picking sides, the odds are moving, and Conor is doing Conor things on social media. Whether this is a real comeback or a very expensive press tour, the man knows how to sell a ticket. Holloway, quietly, is the most dangerous person in this fight. Shohei Ohtani will miss the MLB All-Star Game due to left knee irritation. He'll DH Friday but won't pitch. The All-Star Game losing Ohtani is like the Fed losing credibility: technically still functional, but something important is clearly missing. The crossover theme today is pretty clean: everything looks better on paper than it actually is. Forward earnings, tournament brackets, task force lineups, McGregor's chin. The gap between the narrative and the reality is where the money gets lost and where FF2K lives rent-free.
Highlights
- The market looks cheap at 21x forward earnings the same way a used car looks clean until you check the Carfax; trailing 28x is the Carfax.
- Kevin Warsh just put Marc Andreessen on a Federal Reserve task force, which is either regulatory innovation or the plot of a Netflix docuseries we'll watch in 2028.
- Argentina is fighting for a World Cup while the FBI is apparently fighting Argentina's soccer association for money laundering; multitasking at its finest.
- Ohtani misses the All-Star Game with knee irritation, proving that even the most superhuman athlete in baseball is still, annoyingly, human.
- McGregor vs Holloway is the fight everyone wants, but Holloway is quietly the one guy who might actually end the circus for good.
Original source links
- CNBC: Stocks making the biggest moves midday: SK Hynix, Meta, WD-40, Delta, Vodafone & more
- CNBC: The stock market looks pretty cheap based on future earnings expectations. Don't be fooled
- CNBC: Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: Delta, Circle, Vodafone, Intel and more
- CBS Sports: 2026 FIFA World Cup bracket, results, scores: Quarterfinals matchups and results, semifinals matchups
- CBS Sports: UFC 329 fight card predictions: Expert picks, odds for Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway in Las Vegas
- CBS Sports: Why Argentina Football Association for has reportedly been investigated for alleged money laundering in U.S.