July 10, 2026 · AM edition

Fed Task Forces, Prediction Markets, and Kawhi Ghosting Toronto Again

The Fed gets a task force, Kawhi gets cold feet, and the prediction markets are the only institution actually doing their job.

FF2K generated dispatch art for Fed Task Forces, Prediction Markets, and Kawhi Ghosting Toronto Again

Full recap

Good morning. The Federal Reserve now has task forces, which is either a sign of serious institutional reform or the most elaborate way to avoid making a decision ever invented. Kevin Warsh tapped Marc Andreessen and Walmart's Doug McMillon, among others, to examine how the Fed operates. Nothing says 'sound monetary policy' like the guy who funded every vibe-based startup of the last decade sitting across from a central banker. Still, compared to the previous arrangement, this might actually be an upgrade. Markets are moving premarket with Delta, Circle, Vodafone, and Intel all making noise before the opening bell. Circle, the stablecoin issuer, is on that list, which means crypto-adjacent finance is now officially a premarket mover alongside legacy telecom giants trying to remember what business they're in. Progress is a funny thing. Prediction markets are apparently making corporate compliance departments sweat. CNBC asked 50 companies about their insider trading policies for platforms like Kalshi. A handful had an answer. The rest presumably forwarded the email to legal, who forwarded it to a committee, who scheduled a meeting for Q3. The irony of prediction markets exposing how unprepared institutions are for prediction markets is almost too clean. Speaking of Kalshi, traders there are pricing in a 75 percent chance gas stays above $3.50 through Election Day, driven by U.S.-Iran tensions heating back up. So the market is betting that geopolitical chaos persists long enough to be a ballot-box issue. Brave prediction. Very brave. On the sports desk: Kawhi Leonard's Raptors reunion is reportedly in danger of falling through, which is genuinely impressive because he hasn't even shown up yet and he's already found a way to leave Toronto disappointed. The man is consistent in the most frustrating possible way. Mbappe picked up an injury after France's World Cup run, which is the soccer equivalent of your star receiver tweaking something at the victory parade. The World Cup itself is producing real drama though, with Spain vs. Belgium on deck and Lamine Yamal drawing heavy prop bet attention from sharp bettors. The Phillies and Tigers square off tonight in a matchup the SportsLine model has simulated 10,000 times. Ten thousand. For a mid-July regular season game. This is either peak analytics culture or a sign that someone has too much compute and too much time, and honestly, same.

Highlights

  • Kevin Warsh builds a Fed task force featuring Marc Andreessen - because nothing anchors inflation expectations like a16z energy in the room.
  • Prediction markets are outpacing corporate policy in real time: 50 companies asked, a handful responded, the rest are still in committee.
  • Kawhi Leonard is threatening to ghost Toronto before the ink is dry - spiritually, he never left the load management era.
  • Gas above $3.50 through Election Day is now a 75 percent probability bet on Kalshi - the market is basically pricing in 'everything stays broken.'
  • Lamine Yamal is the most interesting prop bet in sports right now, and that sentence would have been incomprehensible five years ago.

Original source links