July 1, 2026 · PM edition

Dan Ives Goes Indie, England Goes Wobbly, and Inflation Is Apparently a Vibe

When the guy measuring inflation calls it a 'choice,' just know the scale was never broken - it was always adjustable.

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Full recap

Happy Wednesday. Dan Ives, Wall Street's most caffeinated tech bull, is leaving Wedbush to build what he's calling a "modern merchant bank." Translation: he got tired of writing 47-page price target upgrades for a firm nobody under 40 has heard of and decided to monetize his personal brand directly. Respect the hustle, question the branding. Over at the Fed, incoming chair Kevin Warsh is already rewriting the rulebook on how we even define inflation. He's called inflation a "choice" - which is either the most profound thing a central banker has ever said, or the most convenient framing for whoever gets to pick the measuring stick. Spoiler: the answer is both. Kalshi prediction market traders are giving less than 30% odds that inflation peaks above 4.2% in 2026, and they think the May print was the top. Meanwhile the Fed is still out here pretending the CPI is a neutral scientific instrument and not a political document with seasonal adjustments. On the stock tape, Meta, Datadog, and Sandisk are making big midday moves. General Mills is also on the list, which means even your cereal is volatile now. Somewhere a portfolio manager is stress-eating Honey Nut Cheerios while watching the ticker. Across to sports, the USA faces Bosnia and Herzegovina in the World Cup Round of 32, and the sportsbooks are practically begging you to bet on it. DraftKings is offering $200 in bonus bets for a $5 wager, because nothing says "we like your odds" like aggressively subsidizing your first bet. The parallel to Fed liquidity injections writes itself. England meanwhile survived a near-catastrophe against DR Congo, and the post-match consensus is that Thomas Tuchel has built a squad the way Warsh wants to measure inflation - selectively, with questionable methodology, and in a way that only makes sense if you already agree with the premise. The Three Lions are one bad half away from an early flight home. And finally, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce may or may not be getting married at Madison Square Garden. Road closures, private security, and massive setup work have the internet convinced. No confirmation from either party. This is the most efficiently priced rumor since the last Fed leak - everyone already believes it, so the surprise value is exactly zero.

Highlights

  • Dan Ives leaves Wedbush to build a 'modern merchant bank' - which is either visionary or just 'newsletter with a carry fee'
  • Warsh says inflation is a 'choice' and the Fed may be rethinking how it's measured - convenient timing for whoever holds the ruler
  • England survived DR Congo by the skin of their teeth while Tuchel's squad construction raises the same red flags as a legacy bank's risk model
  • Kalshi traders think inflation peaked in May; prediction markets doing more honest work than the bureau that prints the actual number
  • Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce wedding rumors at MSG: the most over-covered non-announcement since the last Apple keynote, and somehow just as effective at moving markets (read: the attention economy)

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